2-Day Wind/Wave/Weather Discussion (7/5/08):
The small, moderate period, multiple-day ESE trade wind swell that has filtered in for days on end lately will bottom out in size over the weekend, then gradually build early next week. Here is the NWS Melbourne marine discussion describing the marine synopsis for the next 5 days:

S/SE FLOW TO AROUND 10 KNOTS (next several days) WITH SEAS TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PICK UP FETCH OF EAST/SE WINDS AND SOME ADDED SWELL LOOKS TO ADD ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO FT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE BY MON/TUE.

The nearly ideal positioning and re-strengthening of the Bermuda high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic most of the upcoming work week should add more size to the E/SE swell skirting the northern Bahamas through the first half of next week as the bulk of the associated fetch will be aimed toward Florida's east coast for an extended period of time. This large-scale wave generating system should continue to be our bread and butter for what is shaping up to be a very good first half of July. Embedded in this deep tropical fetch, TS Bertha will continue to track WNW over the open Atlantic. In the infrared sat loop of the central Atlantic, Bertha is distinctly visible racing westward on a track to eventually take her north of the islands. Click on the SST box to overlay ocean temps in the region, and you see that Bertha is approaching significantly warmer water that could fuel her to hurricane strength in 3-4 days if atmospheric shear does not increase substantially. You can monitor the SW Atlantic Buoy positioned NNE of Puerto Rico at 21N/65W for evidence of a building easterly swell headed our way over the open Atlantic ahead of Bertha. If Bertha maintains strength and a general W/WNW track as forecast models predict, her swell should start arriving leading into the following weekend. Will history repeat itself with an unusual Atlantic July hurricane producing surf reminiscent of Bertha '96?

Models are divided on Bertha's ultimate strength and positioning, so the jury is still out. I'll stay conservative on the forecast for now, but will add that it might be a good idea to get the Florida big wave gun out of the closet and dust it off by next weekend. Please see the Expanded 7-Day Forecast for more discussion and hyperbolically delightful speculation on the building Bertha '08 swell as the upcoming work week evolves.
-Dean