North Florida Surf Forecast - Surf Station Surf Report % % %

FLORIDA EAST COAST MARINE WEATHER (edited by Dean)

High pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area through Thursday, with breezy SW/S wind (sea breeze enhanced during the afternoon). Offshore winds develop Thursday night into Friday as a cold front enters the region. Late afternoon/evening wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold front pushes through north Florida Friday night. A brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.

7-DAY SURF FORECAST

THURSDAY: Hot and relatively small… waves 1-1.5′ in mixed period (5-occ/inc 12 sec) E/SE combo swell with offshore SW wind 8-16 mph most of the day before a SE sea breeze kicks in late afternoon. The outflow from strong to severe t-storms in building along a cold front draped across southern Georgia will propagate southeast into northeast Florida during the afternoon, bringing the potential for spotty relief from the hottest day of the year (to date). Fire danger will be elevated in areas to the south that have not received meaningful rainfall in over a month.

FRIDAY(10May): Hot with waves around 1′ (+/-0.5′) with a west wind all day. There will be the possibility of cooling showers with isolated t-storms pushing down the peninsula if the “cold” front along the GA/FLA line presses far enough south.

SATURDAY: Still small in the morning with wind clocking N/NE… but there is hope that a brief northerly wind surge behing the “cold” front forecast to drop down to central Florida will provide a modest uptick in NE wind swell today. The wind surge off the relatively mild (76F) Atlantic and residual cloud cover following the FROPA should “drop” temps down into the mid-80’sF. Will the front stall over central Florida, or push through? Will it bring rain to break the dry spell? Will we get much of a new swell from it? Too early to tell…

SUNDAY: Still somewhat cooler with wind NE/E 8-15 mph. Waves? Size likely to still be in the 1′ (+/-0.5′) range but trying to come up some during the afternoon.

MONDAY(13May): Will update with latest information when models are consistently consensual.

TUESDAY: Will extend forecast when confidence in future runs is better.

7-10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK (with Hurricane Season Outlook)

Surf temps were running near normal in the low to mid-70’sF to start May. Given the longer daylight, lack of rainfall and cloud cover, near shore SST’s will continue to climb through the mid-70’s, possibly reaching the nitro tropical fuel 80F mark in (a week or two early) by Memorial Day. SST’s in the western Caribbean Sea and the southern GOMEX continue to run a couple of degrees warmer than normal (about a month ahead), so it would not surprise me to see Alberto form before the June 1 official start of the 2024 hurricane season. Modeling suggests several fairly strong lows will periodically spin up in the distant mid-Atlantic well east of Bermuda in May, complimenting the ongoing onshore flow “trade wind” swell with an occasional longer period ground swell component… stay tuned!

CSU’s forecast for an active hurricane season was issued in early April: 2024 Tropical Forecast.

NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)

NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

NWPS significant wave height and direction 5-day forecast for Jacksonville to St. Augustine nearshore coastal waters

Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast discussion.

Venomous blue dragons washup on Texas beaches

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

St Augustine buoy 14-day forecast

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:

Here is a good link to monitor open ocean storm systems in the distant Atlantic:

Atlantic Ocean Satellite

This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:

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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Atlantic Ocean SST’s off Florida’s east coast .

GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map

Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate intense convection.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.

OTHER LINKS

Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=atla_ortho_height

Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:

http://www.stormsurf.com/4cast/mht/se.html

Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly

Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp

This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime

Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml

Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves

What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter. Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page: http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker

Last (but not least), here is a drone footage of tow-in session @ Nazare

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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).