Who doesn’t like hurricane season, sort of? The waves get super powerful, everybody goes out and gets their snacks and supplies, and in the end, it’s usually a disappointment. Caveat, I was at Katrina, Charlie, all the Major ones during my 20 years of Military Service. So, what I just said, I have seen the exceptions firsthand. I have seen the foundations of homes lost, $80K cars that were underwater, and people’s personal items cast across their neighborhood. There is nothing like it. Absolute Destruction. That said, let’s learn about science and how it might relate to your summer surf season! Go science!!!
During normal conditions within the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west, pushing warm water from South America to Asia. In the absence of warm water, icy water rises from the depths of the Pacific Ocean, a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are in opposition to this normal climate pattern, meaning they break the rhythm of the typical oceanic process. Further, El Niño and La Niña can have significant impacts on the Hurricane season.
The El Niño and La Niña have similar effects on increased hurricane activity; one affects the west coast, while the other affects the East Coast. For Surf Station readers we are concerned about La Niña. During a La Niña event trade winds are much stronger than usual and push a significant amount of water towards Asia. This increases upwelling off the coasts of Mexico, America, and Canada, which turns the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought conditions in the South, and heavy rain and flooding in the North. Most importantly, a La Niña event can and usually does lead to a busy hurricane season for the Southeast.
During a La Niña event there is less vertical windshear, or changing windspeed between 5,000′-35,000‘, above the ground. Strong windshear can rip a hurricane apart, significantly weaken it, or prevent it from forming at all. During a La Niña event the windshear in the Atlantic Basin is less of an issue in the formation of hurricanes. For this reason, there are likely to be more hurricanes, many of which becoming major hurricanes. According to multiple weather sources, It is very likely that we will be leaving the El Niño weather pattern next month and possibly entering a La Niña weather pattern in June-August (49%) or July-September (69%).
What does that mean for Surf Station Readers? The Colorado State University (CSU) research team is predicting 23 named storms, 11 to become hurricanes and 5 to become major hurricanes. It means readers should stay wary, keep your hurricane supplies on hand, and most definitely expect some big surf this summer!
