North Florida Surf Forecast

FLORIDA EAST COAST MARINE WEATHER (edited by Dean)

Dense sea fog, mainly along the near shore waters, should dissipate by mid-morning Friday ahead of a re-enforcing dry cold front. Northwesterly winds will increase Friday afternoon in the wake of the frontal passage. Strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes over the weekend in the wake of this front will shift eastward towards the Mid- Atlantic region, resulting in winds shifting to northerly on Saturday, northeasterly by Sunday, and then east-northeasterly on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely develop offshore Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. A coastal trough will materialize over the near shore waters Christmas Day, resulting in cloudy skies with widely scattered, generally light, coastal showers possible at times through mid-week.

DEAN’S 7-DAY SURF FORECAST

FRIDAY: Turning cooler during the day with wind starting out west 7-16 mph, clocking NW and increasing toward evening with waves down overnight to 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in cleaner moderate to long period (9-10 sec) E/ENE swell. Consistency of the 2′ sets will diminish in the afternoon given the increasing NW wind, and the high temperatures in the 60’sF (north of the Cape) achieved early in the afternoon will drop off significantly overnight as the cold air mass settles in.

SATURDAY: A cold morning (air temp around 40F north of the Cape/windchill in the low 30’sF) with wind fairly strong from the NW/N in the morning, then a chilly day (60F) then wind becoming N/NNE 9-16 mph with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (5-9 sec) N/ENE swell with the close period north swell becoming dominant as the day progresses.

SUNDAY(22Dec): After another chilly morning (around 45F) with wind starting out lightest from the north early, then a somewhat “milder” day (though only in the mid-60’sF at the beach) with wind becoming onshore and increasing later in the morning from the NNE/NE 12-18 mph with waves up some during the day 1.5-2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (6-9 sec) NE/ENE swell.

MONDAY: A seasonally cool morning (around 50F) with wind NNE early, then a seasonally “mild” day (65F) with wind NE/ENE 9-17 mph with waves up some more to 2-occ 3′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (7-9 sec) ENE swell.

TUESDAY: Wind easing in the morning and rotating ENE/E 7-12 mph with waves 1.5-occ 2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to longer period (8-9 sec) ENE/E swell.

MERRY CHRISTMAS DAY(25Dec): Wind light/variable in the morning, becoming onshore from the E/SE 6-13 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to long period (8-occ 10 sec) easterly swell. The local photographer who took this picture said the sundog looks like an angel…

THURSDAY: Wind light in the morning, becoming S/SE 6-12 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ longer period (8-occ 9 sec) ENE/E swell.

FRIDAY: Wind light in the morning, becoming SE 7-14 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ longer period (8-occ 9 sec) NE/E swell.

SATURDAY(28Dec): Wind lightest early, then south 8-16 mph with waves up during the day to 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (7-9 sec) mixed direction NE/ESE swell.

SUNDAY: Wind increasing from the SW 9-18 mph with waves 1.5-occ 2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to long period (8-10 sec) NE/ENE swell.

MONDAY: Watching model runs for intensification of a distant north Atlantic low.

NEW YEARS EVE: A while back, models had suggested that a strong 980 mb (+/-5 mb) gale would spin up in the mid-north Atlantic in the last days of December, and the gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure area to the north of the elongated low would create a lengthy ENE fetch that would generate a hyper-long period ground swell. Then models backed off, so I did too. Well, the last few runs are bullish again, portraying the gradient between the weather systems will generate 50-60 knot winds over a lengthy ENE fetch in the distant north Atlantic. If this pans out, a 14-15 sec long period ground swell will start filter in New Years Day, then linger for several days before gradually fading. Wind forecast to start out SW, then clock hard offshore from the W/NW during most of the swell. While not huge, we could have an epically clean, spaced-out, moderate-size long period ground swell with a few “freak” +sets at peak times… This far out, difficult to nail it down or definitively say that the lengthy fetch will match up perfectly with our ENE swell window, but latest model runs look promising.

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Ocean conditions monitoring notes/links: With the outbreak of cold northerly wind behind the recent cold fronts, a good winter-time gauge of fluctuating surf temperatures along the NE Florida coast may be found from upstream readings at the closer to the shore Fernandina Beach buoy. The buoy currently is bouncing around several degrees below 65F. It should generally stay in this range, though it may briefly drop to near 60F over the weekend before Christmas behind a brief cold air outbreak before bouncing back into the low 60’sF the last week of the old year.

Use the local buoy 40 miles offshore from St. Augustine to determine swell arrival in a matter of several hours. Further ESE out in the Atlantic, the NE Bahamas buoy #41047 and buoy #41046 east of the central Bahamas broke free of their moorings during the flurry of tropical activity this hurricane season and are currently adrift in the Atlantic. Until these buoys are restored, buoy # 41049 300 nautical miles SSE of Bermuda may be monitored for fetch/duration of easterly swell to estimate the wave potential a day or two ahead.

Thankfully, buoy #41002 225 nautical miles south of Hatteras remains moored to the sea floor and will continue to indicate (about a day in advance) increases in NE/ENE wind and swell over the offshore waters due to cold fronts and associated low pressure areas pushing off the mid-Atlantic coast in the fall and winter. The Edisto buoy 41 nautical miles southeast of Charleston and the Grays Reef buoy 40 nautical miles southeast of Savannah are good indicators for the potential (around half of a day or so) arrival of N/NE wind and wind swell behind cold fronts pushing down and off the South Carolina and Georgia coasts, then eventually into northeast Florida.

7-10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK (winter weather discussion)

It has been a while (late November!) since I updated this section of the forecast, so now that meteorological winter is here and astrological winter will arrive next weekend, here goes…  models suggest seasonally cool to occasionally cold weather will be the rule through Christmas, along with rideable (but not overly clean or sizeable) waves. Wind will generally be moderate from the north to northeast behind several cold fronts forecast to push through over the next 7-10 days, with only a brief period of light wind just ahead of each front allowing for cleaner conditions. For the last weekend of 2024 and to start of the last (abbreviated) work week ahead of 2025, latest modeling suggests it will be a period of unseasonably mild weather, generally light wind (fog likely) and very small waves as cold air masses and associated storm systems stay well north of Florida, so it might be a good time to travel for surf or hit the slopes out west. However, the last forecast model run hinted that a pair of distant storm systems in the north Atlantic could spin up and pinwheel a long period (14-15 sec) ENE ground swell in our direction, possibly arriving perfectly timed with a cold front’s offshore W/NW winds on New Year’s Eve. Of course, one model run this far out in the forecast is subject to change (and/or radical revision!), so Stay tuned for updates!

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion